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Pulishe: The Fed may cut interest rates by 1-2 times this year, and inflation may remain high.
Ken Orchard, the director of fixed income at PIMCO and manager of diversified income bond strategies, believes that inflation will not drop to a level that would prompt central banks to cut interest rates next year.
Ken Orchard, Fixed Income Manager and Manager of Diversified Income Bond Strategies at PIMCO International, believes that inflation will not fall to a level that would prompt central banks to cut interest rates next year. The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once or twice this year. Inflation may remain high, and interest rates and Treasury bond yields may continue to rise. Therefore, PIMCO is maintaining a relatively short duration to reduce interest rate risk. Ken Orchard also stated that the trend of strong economic growth in the United States has paused since the beginning of the year. Although the gap in growth between the United States and other economies has narrowed, PIMCO believes that the gap may widen again next year. As economic growth diverges once again, PIMCO expects monetary policy differences to emerge between the United States and other major developed markets (such as Europe and the UK). For example, although inflation is still relatively high, the European Central Bank is more willing to cut interest rates first. He continued by saying that the most significant monetary policy differences will involve the United States and regions such as Asia. For example, the Bank of Japan has already begun to raise interest rates, and is expected to continue raising them next year and possibly beyond. Therefore, it is important to consider the expectations and actual outcomes reflected in the differential markets. The market already reflects multiple interest rate cuts in Europe, the United States, and other developed countries. Ken Orchard believes that the biggest economic concern is growth accelerating too quickly, forcing central banks to respond. Investors may even need to seriously consider the possibility of central banks raising interest rates, which could pose a challenge to the market. Additionally, recent market volatility has been low, and investor sentiment is optimistic. However, unexpected events could cause market fluctuations. He believes that investors need to be prepared, such as through flexible management of higher-risk fixed income assets.
Goldman Sachs: Expects US economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, likely reducing interest rate by 25 basis points every quarter after September.
Bairi Investment: Asian investment-grade bonds still maintain good performance.