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Goldman Sachs: Expects US economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, likely reducing interest rate by 25 basis points every quarter after September.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) expects that the growth rate of the U.S. economy will slow down to around 2% in the latter half of the year, as a result of declining profit growth and political concerns, stock indices will remain mostly flat.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) expects that the economic growth in the United States will slow down to around 2% in the second half of the year, as stock indices will largely remain flat due to decreasing profit growth and political concerns. Lindsay Rosner, Managing Director of Multi-Industry Investments at the asset management department of Goldman Sachs, believes that investors could potentially see a rate cut in the United States in the second half of the year. She predicts that the Federal Reserve will not start cutting rates until September, but the pace of rate cuts afterwards may be maintained at 25 basis points per quarter. With declining interest rates, she expects the fixed income market to benefit, with opportunities in high-yield bonds and structured credit. In its "Mid-Year Outlook" report, Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that expectations regarding the timing and pace of interest rate policy adjustments are constantly evolving, highlighting the need for a dynamic investment approach in the coming months. Uncertainty has underscored the defensive role of government bonds and the U.S. dollar as safe haven currencies. In other areas, attractive income opportunities have been seen in diversified industries such as corporate and securitized credit. The pace of rate cuts by central banks around the world has been slower than expected six months ago due to persistent inflation. However, Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. anti-inflation process to continue, with rates expected to be lowered by the end of the year. Alexis Deladerriere, Global Equity Portfolio Manager and Head of Developed Markets at GSAM, predicts that U.S. stocks will largely remain flat in the second half of the year with overall profit growth slowing down and increasing domestic and global political concerns. He recommends staying away from stocks in the artificial intelligence sector that initially outperformed. Additionally, GSAM believes that Indian and Japanese stocks are currently particularly attractive, as they present themes ranging from artificial intelligence to addressing climate change. He also highlights the attractiveness of Japanese corporate governance reforms.
BlackRock Think Tank: Predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, and the large amount of artificial intelligence investments will limit the extent of the rate cuts in the United States.
Pulishe: The Fed may cut interest rates by 1-2 times this year, and inflation may remain high.