BlackRock Think Tank: Predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, and the large amount of artificial intelligence investments will limit the extent of the rate cuts in the United States.

2024-07-10 11:19

Zhitongcaijing
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, but due to the large initial investment in artificial intelligence, it is likely to cause inflation. Therefore, the magnitude of the interest rate cut in this round is limited. Investors are advised not to rely on central bank interest rate cuts to push the market upwards, but to search for high-quality stocks with profitability and cash flow in the market.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September. Pang Wenbo, Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock's Intelligence Institute in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, pointed out that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, but due to the large initial investment in artificial intelligence, it may lead to inflation. Therefore, the magnitude of rate cuts in this cycle is limited. He called on investors not to rely on central bank rate cuts to push the market higher, but to look for quality stocks with profitability and cash flow in the market.
Pang Wenbo stated that the current market forecasts are similar to BlackRock's Intelligence Institute's estimates, and a rate cut in September is a more reasonable prediction. With the November US election date being too close, it may complicate monetary policy, but the actual timing of the rate cut still depends on economic data. Even if the timing of rate cuts is delayed, the performance of US stocks is still quite ideal, due to the rise of AI-related stocks. He believes that this trend will continue.
Pang Wenbo further pointed out that regardless of when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, terminal interest rates will be at a higher level in the coming years, which means that the low interest, low inflation environment of the past is no longer applicable. Investors should focus on the actual economic fundamentals and select assets, industries, or companies that can continue to grow in profitability and cash flow.
In Asia, Pang Wenbo prefers the Japanese and Indian markets. Although Chinese stocks are still attractive in terms of historical averages or globally, he expects Chinese stocks to only maintain a range-bound pattern in the second half of the year, but there are still opportunities to be found in the market.