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Manulife Investment: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will enter a looser monetary policy cycle later this year.
Manulife Investment Management stated that the high interest rates in the United States have likely peaked, and they expect the Federal Reserve to enter a global cycle of loose monetary policy later this year.
Manulife Investment Management stated at the mid-year investment outlook media briefing in 2024 that there is a high chance that US interest rates have peaked, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will enter a global easing monetary policy cycle later this year. Manulife Investment Management predicts that inflation will be in line with the Federal Reserve's target level, and employment situation is not expected to create upward pressure on service sector inflation. Despite these favorable trends, it is expected that the US economy will slow down due to tight credit conditions faced by businesses and consumers. In this delicate outlook, investors must remain flexible in adjusting their strategies to cope with an uncertain economic environment. Luke Browne, Head of Asset Allocation for Manulife Investment Management in Asia, said, "Currently in the middle of the year, we believe that the global economy is still in good shape. Despite recent economic slowdowns, the US economy remains in a leading position driven by strong consumer activity. Additionally, economies such as Europe and Japan are showing signs of stability and improvement. Policymakers are taking interventions to address challenges faced by industries." Browne stated, "The pace of global inflation deceleration, especially the deflationary trend in the US, will be our focus for the rest of the year. Central banks in developed countries like Switzerland and Canada, as well as the European Central Bank, have all been cutting interest rates in the past few months. However, due to persistent inflation factors such as car insurance and housing costs, the progress of deflation is uneven, hence the Federal Reserve has been cautious." Looking ahead, Browne believes that these one-off inflationary factors will stabilize, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates before the end of the year. This is crucial because cutting rates in an environment of stable economic growth can make the relative valuations of markets or assets more attractive. For example, US small-cap stocks have high leverage in a rate cycle and their relative valuations are discounted to historic lows. Therefore, they are expected to benefit from the rate reduction cycle. In addition, there are attractive investment opportunities in developed and emerging markets outside of the US, especially in Japan and India. In terms of industries, investors should also focus on energy and commodities. Manulife Investment Management observes that investment opportunities are emerging in ASEAN markets, entering an easing cycle, which will present more opportunities to seize.
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