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Schroder Investment: Global economy likely to have a soft landing with a 70% likelihood, neutral outlook for Europe and the UK.
Schroder Investments currently tends to prefer assets with shorter duration, which may potentially outperform long-term bonds on the yield curve.
Schroders Global Investments points out in their latest research that the possibility of a soft landing for the global economy has increased, while the possibility of a hard landing seems to have decreased. In the past few weeks, there have been significant changes in interest rate outlook. The positive stock market performance has improved financial conditions, and the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve also suggests the possibility of a 75 basis point rate cut in 2024. Signs of improvement in the global manufacturing cycle have led to Schroders Global Investments raising the probability of a soft landing for the global economy to 70%. Furthermore, as there are signs that the impact of tightening interest rate policies on European economic growth may have peaked, Schroders Global Investments have shifted their view on the economic prospects of Europe and the UK from pessimistic to neutral. Schroders Global Investments currently prefer assets with shorter durations that are likely to outperform long bonds on the yield curve. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve hinting at rate cuts, Schroders Global Investments believe that US long bonds will be more attractive than European long bonds. They also maintain a positive view on most high-quality corporate bonds, with secured bonds, securitized corporate bonds, and quasi-sovereign bonds being the most attractive in terms of valuation. However, due to recent market changes, the attractiveness of corporate bonds has decreased, especially US corporate bonds. Currently, they see European investment-grade bonds as more favorable based on valuation.
Baoling's 2024 Global High-Yield Market Outlook: BB-rated U.S. bonds have relative attractiveness.
Schroder Investment: Asian stocks still attractive in 2024, recommend focusing on three investment areas.
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