In its 2024 Global High Yield Market Outlook, Barclays stated that the current yield for BB-rated US bonds is 7% to 8%, which is relatively attractive compared to the return rate of stock markets like the S&P 500, whose long-term return rate is around 10% or 11%. With yields at this level, there is no need to take on additional credit risk to pursue returns. The institution believes that there are unique investment opportunities in loans with high spreads and yields in the medium to short term. In the loan market, the interest rate for BB-rated loans is around 7.5% to 8%, and historically, the default rate in this market has been very low. There are also investment opportunities in other areas of the loan market. Regarding the possibility of a large-scale default wave in the future, Barclays pointed out that if the economy experiences a recession or significant slowdown, it would be one of the most widely predicted economic downturns in history. As global markets are forward-looking, prices already reflect the economic downturn, so in the next 12 to 18 months, most credit trades that are likely to default may see significant discounts compared to face value, and the high yields currently offered in the market may help absorb the defaults that may occur. At the same time, the quality of the global high yield bond market has significantly improved over the past 10 years, which is another reason why Barclays believes that a widespread default is unlikely. For example, BB-rated bonds now account for about half of the market, compared to only 40% ten years ago. The higher default risk CCC-rated bonds currently only account for 10% of the market, compared to over 20% after the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, while default rates may rise from their current low levels, the overall performance of the high yield bond market remains robust. Barclays also mentioned that during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, over $200 billion of investment-grade credit was downgraded to high yield. Subsequently, the size of the high yield bond market fell by about $350 billion, with $230 billion belonging to "rising stars" (companies whose credit quality improved and were upgraded by credit rating agencies), bringing positive technical aspects. The bank expects that the size of "rising stars" in 2024 will still be higher than "fallen angels" (originally investment-grade bonds that were later downgraded to non-investment grade), but technical support may be less than in the past 18 months.