Swiss Pictet Wealth Management's Chief Strategist and Research Director for Asia, Chen Dong, anticipates that the core PCE in the United States will drop from 4.2% last year to 2.8%, providing the Federal Reserve with room to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, with a total of 5 rate cuts throughout the year totaling around 125 basis points, putting the federal funds rate at 4 to 4.25% by the end of the year. In Europe, the overall economy is expected to avoid a severe recession and recover in the second half of the year. It is anticipated that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will begin cutting rates in June, each by 100 basis points. Chen Dong believes that there is a 60% chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy this year. Due to the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio being around 6%, it is not expected that there will be another large-scale fiscal stimulus package before the U.S. presidential election. The first half of the year may see modest negative growth, with a slow recovery in the second half, resulting in a year-on-year growth of around 0.8% in 2024, lower than 2.4% in 2023, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to about 4.5%. Chen Dong recommends that now is a good time to shift from cash and cash-like investments back to fixed income, in order to lock in current attractive rates, reduce reinvestment risk, and potentially benefit from capital appreciation. The group favors defensive government bonds with a maximum maturity of 10 years and investment-grade corporate bonds with a maximum maturity of 7 years. Additionally, the substantial coupon provided by bonds can provide a buffer against unfavorable market price movements. Furthermore, Chen Dong points out that the industrial sector, driven by long-term structural factors such as electrification, decarbonization, and digitization, holds opportunities worth exploring. In terms of sovereign bonds, if there are issues in the surrounding countries of the eurozone, the group would prefer to use German government bonds as a safe haven. As for stocks, given the high valuations of U.S. stocks, the group will reduce exposure to U.S. stocks and take a neutral stance on stocks from other countries.