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Dongfang Union Prosperity: It is expected that interest rate fluctuations may increase this year, and flexible allocation between investment grade and high-yield bonds in Asia.
Dong Asia Union News Agency stated that 2024 is an election year. Countries and regions such as India, Indonesia have already held major elections, followed by the upcoming United States presidential election.
In 2024, it is an election year, as mentioned in the East Asia Union Feng Fa document. Countries and regions such as India and Indonesia have already held major elections, followed by the upcoming US presidential elections. The combination of election factors and escalating geopolitical tensions is expected to increase interest rate volatility this year. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on long-term interest rate trends to avoid short-term fluctuations. Many Asian markets have stable economies, good credit tones for their bonds, and attractive yields. For the remainder of this year, investors can flexibly allocate between investment grade and high-yield bonds in Asia to find opportunities. Maintaining optimism for investment grade bonds in Korea, China's technology, media, and telecommunications long-dated investment-grade bonds have investment value. The Korean economy and financial markets are stable, with local investment-grade financial institution bonds having good credit tones and high yields. Local consumption in Korea has rebounded, coupled with strong exports, with economic growth in the first quarter of this year exceeding expectations at 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021. The Bank of Korea believes that local economic growth this year has a chance to surpass the previously expected 2.1%. Furthermore, local inflation is falling faster than expected, with the consumer price index rising 2.7% year-on-year in May, the lowest increase this year. In addition, the Korean financial markets are resilient and believe they have the capacity to withstand risks if the external environment worsens. East Asia Union Feng Fa also has a positive outlook on China's technology, media, and telecommunications long-dated investment-grade bonds, especially bonds of e-commerce and social media platform operators. Most of China's tech giants have reported outstanding performance in the latest quarter. With limited new bond supply and attractive yields, investors have a strong demand for bonds in this sector. Similarly, due to the limited supply, bonds of Chinese asset management companies also show decent performance. This sector also benefits from various real estate measures introduced by the Chinese government to improve investor sentiment. Slightly optimistic about high-yield real estate bonds in China, high-yield real estate and industrial bonds in Indonesia can be seen at the top. China has implemented a series of measures to stimulate the economy and real estate sector, with many cities lifting purchase restrictions. In May, the Chinese authorities introduced more measures to stimulate the property market. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan, allowing local state-owned enterprises to purchase unsold housing and convert it into affordable housing. At the same time, there is a comprehensive adjustment of housing loan interest rate policies, including cancelling the national mortgage loan rate floor and reducing the down payment ratio. The government is expected to observe the effectiveness of the measures for some time, and if the results are not as expected, more stimulating policies may be introduced. It will take time for new home sales, housing prices, and real estate developer profits to improve. However, from a credit perspective, banks providing project loans or guarantee bonds to help developers refinance provide solid support for financially strong real estate developers. The measures to stimulate the property market mainly benefit investment-grade developers, state-owned enterprises, and developers with sufficient investment properties as collateral. Similarly, attention to high-yield real estate and industrial bonds in Indonesia. Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of this year exceeded expectations, rising by 5.11% year-on-year. With an increasing labor force and improving consumer purchasing power, the economy has structural growth potential. Moreover, the Indonesian government is focused on investing in infrastructure, which helps drive economic activity and favors the outlook for high-yield industrial bonds in Indonesia. The market expects the new president to continue the existing economic policies. Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has a positive future in economic development, attracting a lot of foreign investment. Recently, a US tech giant announced a $1.7 billion investment in developing artificial intelligence and cloud technology in the country. The stable economic development has also driven the local property market, with residential market volume and prices rising in the first quarter of this year, with sales surging by 31.16% year-on-year. Since the beginning of the year, many Indonesian companies have redeemed US dollar bonds early or conducted debt restructuring, reducing interest expenses and improving their balance sheets and credit tones. In summary, the economies of many Asian countries are developing steadily, with good credit fundamentals for bonds and more attractive yields compared to global peers. However, Asian bonds are to some extent affected by the performance of US bonds. The US will hold presidential elections later this year, which may cause market fluctuations. Therefore, investors who focus on long-term interest rate trends and maintain flexible allocation between investment grade and high-yield bonds in Asia can benefit from investment opportunities brought about by changing market conditions.
East Asia United Investment: American technology stocks lead the way, Chinese value high-dividend stocks are attractive.
Allianz Investment: It is expected that the Bank of Japan will reduce bond buying and raise interest rates, and we continue to be bullish on Japanese stocks.
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