East Asia United Investment: American technology stocks lead the way, Chinese value high-dividend stocks are attractive.

2024-07-29 15:27

Zhitongcaijing
Donghai Lianfeng Investment recently stated in a publication that the global economic growth is gradually stabilizing, inflation is steadily declining, monetary policy and financial market stability are gradually improving, and continue to provide support for the capital market.
East Asia United Investment released a statement, stating that the global economic growth is gradually stabilizing, inflation is steadily declining, and the stability of monetary policy and financial markets is improving, providing continued support for capital markets. However, due to differences in macroeconomic conditions and monetary policies among countries, as well as tense geopolitical situations, there are hidden risks within opportunities in the market. Additionally, many stock markets in various regions have already experienced considerable gains, making prudent stock selection crucial for overall investment performance. East Asia United Investment believes that countries with structural growth drivers, as well as leading industries and high dividend value stocks, can provide better returns and stable income for investment portfolios.
East Asia United Investment points out that the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates only once this year, and indicates that long-term interest rates will be higher than expected. While the timing of rate cuts in the US is uncertain, the European and Canadian central banks have already lowered rates. Japan, in response to long-awaited inflation, has raised rates for the first time in 17 years. Indonesia, on the other hand, suddenly raised interest rates in April to support the exchange rate. The global high-interest environment continues, with inflation levels in many countries yet to fall to central bank targets, surprising the resilience of the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will achieve growth of around 3.2% this year and next. Economic growth in many countries around the world is gradually stabilizing, inflation is steadily declining, and the chance of a hard landing for the US economy is small. Therefore, East Asia United Investment is optimistic about stock assets, but given the disparate economic performance of many countries, stock selection is particularly crucial at this stage. Currently, East Asia United Investment remains bullish on strategically positioned US tech stocks, certain Japanese stocks, Chinese high dividend value stocks, and some promising Indian stocks with structural growth potential.
From a macroeconomic perspective, East Asia United Investment states that while there are signs of a slowdown in the US economy, overall it remains robust. Lower-than-expected inflation in May in the US creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The US leads in the technology sector, with artificial intelligence beginning to be applied in various industries, stimulating demand. This leads the firm to continue to favor strategically positioned US tech companies. The earnings of the seven tech giants in the US are strong, with large cash reserves, and many companies are paying dividends. Artificial intelligence is considered the 4th industrial revolution, and generative artificial intelligence can create new content and ideas, requiring advanced chips, software, and databases. This presents different investment opportunities in the artificial intelligence supply chain.
Furthermore, benefiting from corporate governance reforms, normalization of monetary policy, rising asset prices, and an increase in the investment limit for Japanese citizens, East Asia United Investment is optimistic about certain Japanese stocks. Since the Tokyo Stock Exchange began implementing reforms in 2022, many Japanese companies have announced share buybacks and increased dividends, as well as lifting cross shareholdings, helping to increase stock valuations. With increasing financial activities between local and international entities, the firm believes that banking and financial stocks have investment potential.
Following the end of the negative interest rate policy in Japan in March, and the lifting of yield curve control policies, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce the purchase size of long-term government bonds at its June meeting, further promoting the normalization of monetary policy. After years of deflation, Japan has finally returned to inflation, with increased wages and capital spending by companies. With the normalization of interest rates in Japan and expectations of rate cuts in the US, the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is believed to gradually narrow, with the yen exchange rate likely to fluctuate, making domestically-focused stocks favorable with lesser impact from exchange rate movements.
East Asia United Investment also notes that the Chinese economy is relatively stable. Although the effectiveness of the historic measures introduced in May to rescue the property market is still to be observed, the firm believes that the worst time for the Chinese property market is likely behind. The firm currently holds a cautious stance on real estate stocks, pending further evaluation of the measures' effectiveness. At present, the firm continues to favor high dividend and attractively valued Chinese value stocks, such as banks and oil companies, the latter having a hedging effect against geopolitical risks.
In addition, in the recent general elections, Indian Prime Minister Modi was elected for a third consecutive term, however, his party, the BJP, lost its absolute majority. The election results did not diminish the confidence of the East Asia United Investment team in the prospects of India. The country's latest quarterly economic growth exceeded expectations, reaching 7.8%. Rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded India's outlook from stable to positive, reflecting continued policy stability and significant infrastructure investments favoring local economic development. With benefits from infrastructure investments, increasing middle-income and labor populations, the East Asia United Investment team will continue to watch stocks with structural growth potential in India.