logo
Login
Register
Invesco: The US monetary policy is overly tight, and we should be more concerned about its long-term and variable lagging effects.
Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist of Invesco, shares her views on the global central bank interest rate decision expectations.
Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, shared her views on the global central bank interest rate decision expectations. Regarding whether the Federal Reserve will follow the Bank of Canada's footsteps, she pointed out that William Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, had previously advocated for "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period" due to concerns about rising US unemployment and weak consumer spending. However, his attitude has recently dramatically changed. He recently stated that the Fed should start cutting rates this week, explaining that the situation has changed and he has changed his mind accordingly. The Fed should start cutting rates, preferably at the upcoming interest rate decision meeting next week. Hooper believes that the Fed is unlikely to start cutting rates this week, but the possibility still exists and is growing. In her opinion, cutting rates would be a wise decision. She believes that considering the progress the US has made in fighting inflation and the current economic conditions, US monetary policy is too tight. The gap between the Federal Funds Rate and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) has reached its highest level since 2007. The proxy fed funds rate is currently at 5.9%, which reflects the true inflation after considering other monetary policy tools. At this stage, she believes that the Fed should be less concerned about the resurgence of inflation and more concerned about the long-term and variable lag effects of monetary policy, which may have serious negative impacts on the US economy in the coming months. As for the Bank of Japan, the market is starting to expect a rate hike, and there are good reasons for this as interest rates and prices seem to be mutually reinforcing. She also expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates and reduce bond purchases. This is an important and reasonable step in the normalization of policy, especially if the Fed is about to cut rates, which should continue to strengthen the yen. Furthermore, she believes that the Bank of England will follow the footsteps of other major central banks and start cutting rates. A statement submitted to Parliament by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves on July 29 may prompt the Bank of England to cut rates, as the new Labour government faces some lingering severe fiscal problems, which will lead to cuts in government spending and possibly higher taxes. This may create real resistance for the economy and provide another reason for the Bank of England to cut rates. She believes that rate cuts may in turn be a positive factor for UK stocks.
UBS Wealth Management predicts that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond will fall to 3.5% by mid-2025.
Allianz Investments: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the upper limit of interest rates to around 0.25%.
Customer Service
Add the WeCom