UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific Investment Director's office has released a report predicting that by mid-2025, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will fall to 3.5%. However, the bank also acknowledges that this view carries risks, as the volatility of term premiums has increased due to uncertainty in the US election and the fragile fiscal situation of the US government. Fiscal stimulus measures related to the pandemic have raised the US government's debt from slightly above 100% of GDP on average from 2010 to 2019 to over 120% of GDP, while the high interest rate environment has nearly doubled the debt servicing costs. Estimates of the US fiscal deficit continue to rise. If the market begins to factor in more aggressive fiscal deficits, term premiums may expand as unsustainable fiscal dynamics ultimately lead investors to demand higher compensation for bearing more duration risk, thus putting upward pressure on 10-year bond yields. In addition, UBS Wealth Management points out that if Trump is re-elected as US president, uncertainty in inflation and growth impacts may exacerbate the volatility of term premiums. However, the bank does not strongly believe that term premiums will continue to expand on the eve of the US presidential election, and believes that macroeconomic fundamentals will continue to be the main driving factor in the next 6 to 12 months. With inflation declining, growth slowing, and the possibility of a shift in Fed policy, the bank continues to expect interest rates across the entire term structure to decrease, benefiting high-quality bonds.