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Jingshun: Expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December, preferring cyclical stocks and small-cap stocks.
Zhao Yaoting, strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at Invesco, pointed out that the decision of the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current level was in line with expectations.
In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), global market strategist Zhao Yaoting from Invesco pointed out that the decision of the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current level is in line with expectations. However, the Federal Reserve has changed its language in its statement, replacing "tightening" with "neutral", paving the way for the first interest rate cut in September. The Federal Reserve used to describe inflation as "high", but now it is described as "somewhat high". Invesco believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September and again in December. In the economic assessment, the Federal Reserve described GDP growth as "robust", but the Federal Open Market Committee acknowledged that job growth is "slowing" and pointed out that the unemployment rate is "rising". Although the Federal Reserve did not explicitly commit to cutting interest rates in September, the market responded positively to the Fed's statement. Stocks rose and bond yields fell. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve has historically made significant changes to monetary policy announcements during the Jackson Hole Symposium, so stronger signals about starting interest rate cuts in September may be received then. Invesco expects that if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in September, the United States will be able to avoid an economic recession, and the U.S. economy may accelerate growth again by the end of 2024/early 2025. Therefore, it is advisable to continue to favor risk assets while being cautious about controlling risks, as high valuations limit the upside potential of risk assets. Invesco expects the U.S. dollar to weaken later this year as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates. In terms of stocks, global economic growth may improve, so cyclicals and small caps are preferred due to their relatively attractive valuations and sensitivity to the economic cycle. For the same reasons, developed markets outside the U.S. and emerging market stocks are also favored. In terms of bonds, with bond yields nearing their highest levels in decades, it is believed that bonds offer attractive opportunities as major central banks around the world announce interest rate cuts. Given that the duration of bank loans is essentially zero, they are expected to be relatively unaffected by interest rate fluctuations. As the dollar is expected to weaken, local currency and hard currency bonds in emerging markets are also expected to perform well. In real estate, Invesco believes that the severe negative sentiment has been reflected in prices and that there is significant upside potential as the environment improves. The reduction in policy interest rates provides room for a decrease in real estate debt costs and capitalization rates, which Invesco believes will boost trading activity and promote price recovery.
Pu Laishi: The Fed may cut interest rates in September, and asset allocation will be more inclined towards high-yield bonds.
Schroder Investment: Positive Outlook for Stocks, Emerging Markets More Attractive.
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