T. Rowe Price's multi-asset division capital market strategist Tim Murray has commented on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market is currently expecting the Fed to begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, but this expectation seems overly optimistic. Two CPI (Consumer Price Index) data reports will be released in the United States before the September meeting, and investors should be aware that the CPI data may fall short of expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference after the meeting, where two key points stood out. First, Powell described the weakness in the labor market as normalizing, which is important because unless the Fed sees substantial weakness in the labor market, rather than the gradual normalization currently occurring, investors should not expect the Fed to suddenly accelerate rate cuts. Second, while a rate cut may happen at the September meeting, it is still premature to draw definite conclusions. If the trend unfolds as expected, the current market view of a rate cut by the Fed in September followed by one cut per quarter for the next six quarters will be accurate, leading to a federal funds rate of 3.5% by March 2026. However, the risk facing this expectation lies in stubborn inflation rather than a sudden deterioration in the labor market. Therefore, in terms of asset allocation, a preference for high-yield bonds over U.S. long-term Treasury bonds and a reasonable allocation of physical assets stocks are advisable.