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Fidelity: Expects the Federal Reserve to join the rate-cutting lineup and is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Japanese stocks and technology stocks.
Fidelity International points out that, overall, the likelihood of a soft landing (low growth and low inflation) in the US economy has increased. Due to the slowdown in growth and inflation, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will join the rate-cutting ranks. With loose financial conditions, the risk of a recession is not likely. Therefore, Fidelity maintains a positive view on risky assets, remains optimistic about the prospects for stock investments, and takes a wait-and-see approach towards credit bonds.
Fidelity International pointed out that overall, the probability of a soft landing (low growth and low inflation) in the US economy has increased. Due to slowed growth and inflation, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will join the rate-cutting camp. However, with loose financial conditions, there shouldn't be a recurrence of recession risk. Therefore, Fidelity maintains a positive view on risky assets, remains optimistic about stock investment prospects, and adopts a wait-and-see approach towards credit bonds. When considering the escalating geopolitical risks and uncertainty of the US election, the investment strategy is recommended to focus on a global high-quality dividend strategy, complemented by US dollar quality bonds as the core asset allocation to combat market volatility, and holds a positive long-term outlook on Japanese and technology stocks. Fidelity International stated that the Federal Reserve, as expected by the market, is maintaining the federal funds rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This is the eighth consecutive time that the Federal Reserve has kept the rate unchanged, and the benchmark rate remains at a high level over the past 23 years. Over the past year, inflation has softened, and the trend of slowing inflation has expanded from goods to exclude housing-related core services and housing services prices. The committee is confident that price pressures will continue to decline, and in recent months, the committee believes progress has been made in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Federal Reserve stated that the employment level has now recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but the goal of maximizing employment is facing downward risks. It emphasizes closely monitoring the labor market and remaining vigilant for signs of a sharp decline. The committee also stated that the risks of achieving employment and inflation goals continue to be balanced, and will focus on the dual risks facing the two tasks in the future. If inflation continues to slow as expected, economic growth maintains a reasonable strong level, and the labor market remains stable, there is a possibility of discussing a rate cut as early as the September meeting, but a 0.5% rate cut is currently not under consideration. With the market's increasing focus on the US election, Powell stated that any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are absolutely unrelated to politics, and emphasized that the Federal Reserve will never attempt to formulate monetary policy based on election results that have not yet occurred. The macro and strategic asset team at Fidelity International stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates as expected by the market, however, the progress made in inflation and the labor market has brought a signal of a rate cut, with Chairman Powell also revealing the start of a rate cut cycle in September. Although this rate meeting lacked forward-looking guidance, the post-meeting statement and press conference still sent strong signals. Overall, Fidelity believes that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy this year has significantly decreased, and as for the direction of the policy in 2025, it will depend on the results of the US election and the development of future trade and fiscal policies.
DWS: The Federal Reserve has not explicitly committed to cutting interest rates, but a rate cut in September is still possible.
Pu Laishi: The Fed may cut interest rates in September, and asset allocation will be more inclined towards high-yield bonds.
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