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DWS: The Federal Reserve has not explicitly committed to cutting interest rates, but a rate cut in September is still possible.
American economist Christian Scherrmann of DWS stated that, as expected, Federal Reserve officials admitted to making "further" progress in achieving their inflation target at the July policy meeting.
DWS economist Christian Scherrmann stated that as expected, Federal Reserve officials admitted at the July monetary policy meeting that there had been "further" progress in achieving the inflation target. However, contrary to market expectations, the officials did not explicitly commit to future rate cuts, stating that more data is needed to confirm the sustained decline in inflation. Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the post-meeting press conference, suggesting that if economic data continues to improve, the Fed could cut rates as early as September, with the possibility of multiple rate cuts in the long term. He also revealed that rate cuts were actually discussed at the meeting, but were opposed by the majority of officials. While concerns about the labor market have increased among Fed officials, the mainstream view still sees a soft landing for the economy. Overall, this monetary policy meeting once again focused on economic data, but the stance of the Federal Open Market Committee is clearly shifting. With inflation cooling over the past three months, offsetting the rebound in the first quarter of the year, and recent changes in the unemployment rate, the Fed is adjusting its approach. Given the strong economic activity and gradual cooling of the labor market, this meeting did not need to provide clear forward guidance on interest rate policy, as the Fed aims to avoid triggering significant market reactions similar to those seen in the fourth quarter of last year. This may explain why Powell is striving for balance in his statements, even when expressing dovish views. Looking ahead, a rate cut in September is still feasible, and attention will be focused on whether the Jackson Hole central bank retreat in August will provide clearer signals.
Golden Horse Capital: The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate between 16000 and 19000 in the second half of the year. Take advantage of the low prices to invest in technology stocks and strive for a rebound.
Fidelity: Expects the Federal Reserve to join the rate-cutting lineup and is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Japanese stocks and technology stocks.
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