Schroeder investment: Three types of "bears" are wreaking havoc in the volatile global stock market.

2024-08-12 15:26

Zhitongcaijing
Schroders' Co-Head of Investments and Group Chief Investment Officer Johanna Kyrklund pointed out that in the volatile global stock market, there are three different types of "bears" rampaging.
Johanna Kyrklund, Co-Head of Global Investment at Schroders and Group Chief Investment Officer, pointed out that in the volatile global stock market, there are three different types of "bears" wreaking havoc. For one type of "bear," the market turmoil has brought some benefits. Investors have been pricing in the "golden-haired girl" scenario so far in 2024, which involves moderate inflation and sustained economic growth. Recent financial market volatility has raised doubts about the possibility of an economic "soft landing." The performance of the financial markets is largely driven by three types of investors, namely the three "bears."
The first type of "bear" is the macro hedge fund industry, which is being affected by the unwinding of yen carry trades. The recent shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, as well as market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed, have weakened investors' expectations for interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan, leading these funds to unwind their carry trade positions. The impact of these trades should disappear soon.
The second type of "bear" is trend-following traders and systematic traders. They have already executed the first wave of trades, which were mainly a reaction to the increase in market volatility. The first wave of trades is usually very rapid and highly correlated across various strategies. They may currently be in the second wave of trades, where signals are starting to change, reflecting a change in trends and a decrease in correlation between different investment strategies. Analysis shows that these investors have not completely overcome their challenges.
The third type of "bear" is fundamental analysis investors. These investors (including Schroders' global investments) often focus more on medium-term performance, placing emphasis on whether the risks of an economic recession have been adequately reflected in the financial markets.
Johanna Kyrklund stated that currently, the financial markets have already priced in the expectation that the Fed will cut rates 5 to 6 times by the end of 2024, with each cut being 25 basis points. This view is starting to diverge from reality and is becoming more extreme. Schroders' global investment's conclusion is that as long as credit markets (especially credit issuance) and labor markets remain robust, even if asset valuations have not yet reached the point where assets can be purchased on a large scale without considering economic cycle factors, the recent adjustments have eliminated some bubbles in the financial markets and improved return prospects before entering the fall.