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Schroder: If Trump wins the election, it may help US companies maintain double-digit profit growth.
Schroder investment strategist Tina Fong pointed out that if Trump is elected for a second presidential term, it may help American companies maintain double-digit profit growth and have a positive impact on the US stock market.
Schroders global investment strategist Tina Fong pointed out that if Trump is re-elected for a second presidential term, it may help American companies maintain double-digit profit growth and have a positive impact on the US stock market. Fong stated that within a year of Trump winning the US presidential election in November 2016, the US stock market soared by 24%. At that time, investors expected Trump to implement policies favorable for economic growth, thus driving the growth of the US economy. Tech and financial sectors performed the best as investors anticipated that these industries would benefit from a more favorable regulatory environment, especially Trump's overseas profit reduction tax plan, which boosted stock prices in the tech sector. The tech sector at the time also included some of the tech giants that were later reclassified as part of the communication services sector. Industrials and materials industries also performed well against the backdrop of expected increases in infrastructure and defense spending. Defensive stocks, including utilities and essential consumer goods, lagged behind during the strong stock market rebound. Energy stocks, typically defensive, also underperformed due to supply factors and their strong gains prior to Trump's election. Undoubtedly, investors at the time expected the Trump administration to introduce measures favoring economic growth, which played a crucial role in the revaluation of the US stock market. However, strong corporate profit growth also contributed to the performance of financial markets. Against the backdrop of strong economic activity in the US, the corporate profit growth rate of the S&P 500 index doubled in 2017, reaching 11.8%. While past performance is not indicative of future returns, if Trump is re-elected, investors' expectations for corporate profit growth in the US may once again drive stock market performance. However, the substantial fiscal deficit may lead to higher US bond yields, which could have a negative impact on currently high stock valuations. Additionally, further imposition of trade tariffs may affect investor sentiment. Nonetheless, from the perspective of corporate earnings, Schroders' global investment S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) model indicates that with a Trump victory, corporate earnings may grow more rapidly. Fong emphasized that in the event of a Trump victory, with a more favorable regulatory environment and further tax cuts expected, the forecast is for the US economy to expand under strong growth, leading to further expansion of profit margins and utilization rates. Trump plans to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and has expressed intentions to reduce corporate tax rates. This will help American companies to maintain double-digit profit growth in the coming years (especially in 2026 and 2027). This trend will be a significant positive factor driving the US financial markets, with historically strong cyclical industries expected to be the biggest beneficiaries.
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