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Kaikey Asia: Market volatility still exists, can increase defensive stocks.
Caikey Asia commented that the poor US non-farm data exacerbated market concerns about economic slowdown. However, after the release of ISM services data and initial jobless claims were better than expected, investor worries about a recession eased slightly. The focus will now shift to the US elections, geopolitical conflicts, and the pace of economic downturn.
KGI Asia released a statement saying that the disappointing non-farm data in the United States has heightened market concerns about economic slowdown. However, with the announcement of ISM service industry data and initial jobless claims numbers exceeding market expectations, investors' worries about a recession have slightly eased. The focus going forward will be on the US elections, geopolitical conflicts, and the pace of economic downturn. Considering the economic slowdown and ongoing market volatility, it is advisable for stock market investors to increase defensive stocks and adopt a diversified strategy. In terms of bond market investments, it is recommended to increase allocations to high-quality bonds when interest rates rise. Regarding the bond market, KGI Asia pointed out that high-quality bonds, such as US treasuries and investment-grade bonds, tend to perform well during recession periods. As the possibility of an economic recession still looms, some investors are even questioning whether the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates. On the other hand, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has significantly reduced its holdings in Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) in the second quarter while continually increasing investments in US short-term bonds. This move is seen by market participants as Buffett's concern about a US economic recession, as he had previously stated that he would purchase short-term treasury bonds during an economic crisis. Currently, data reflects a 100% probability of a rate cut in the US in September, with a 1% rate cut expected next year. The rising expectations of a rate cut in the US have led to a decline in yields on different maturities of US government bonds. As of August 9th, the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds were around 4.05% and 3.93% respectively, with yields dropping by about 56 and 35 basis points respectively compared to a month ago. KGI Asia also mentioned that the decline in yields supports the rise in bond prices, with investment-grade bonds performing well recently and standing out during the global stock market correction. It is widely agreed that the direction of US government bond yields is downward, and recent market concerns about an economic recession have only slightly eased, causing a slight rebound in yields. It is advisable to first allocate to medium-term bonds to lock in profits, and for long-term bonds, investors should wait for a rebound in yields before entering the market. In terms of the stock market, some market participants believe that Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are at historically low levels, while US, European, Japanese, and Taiwanese stocks are at high levels. Funds may flow from overvalued markets to undervalued markets, including the Hong Kong stock market. However, it is important to note that this week is a major technology earnings week for Hong Kong, and the performance is expected to influence the overall market sentiment. It is recommended to remain cautious and maintain a globally diversified portfolio in such situations.
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