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Liu Yuhui: This year, the risk appetite in the A-share market may become more stable and friendly, brewing the evolution of long-term industrial logic.
On January 11th, economist Liu Yuhui shared his outlook on macroeconomics and the market for the year 2024 during the live broadcast of the 2024 opening strategy meeting of Huaxia Fund.
On January 11th, economist Liu Yuhui shared his macroeconomic and market outlook for 2024 during the live broadcast of the Huaxia Fund 2024 New Year Strategy Meeting. He pointed out that the A-share market is likely brewing a long-term evolution of industrial logic, such as data services, computing power storage, and intelligent driving, all of which are emerging areas with the potential for exciting structural trends. The industry evolution logic towards industrial digitization and data capitalization may be the biggest driving force for premium in the Chinese capital market in the coming years, with the motivation coming from fiscal policies. Liu Yuhui mentioned that there have been some positive developments at the policy level in the past six months. Particularly in resolving local government debt crises, innovative measures such as comprehensive debt restructuring have been introduced and are being systematically implemented on a large scale. It is important to closely monitor breakthroughs in China's decision-making in unconventional norms, be it technological advancements, strategic direction, or execution, as there are high hopes for these breakthroughs and anything is possible. Before a breakthrough occurs, there are three difficulties in changing the current situation: economic growth, the credit expansion of the central bank's monetary policy, and liquidity games within the market. Today, stock prices cannot break free from the downward trend without economic support, consumer spending is slow, internal price pressures are spreading in the new energy sector, and large pharmaceutical prices are under continuous downward pressure. Additionally, the financial sector is somewhat burdened by bad debts from the real estate sector. At present, there is not much internal momentum within the market itself to drive change, unless an external force intervenes to fundamentally disrupt it. However, such a scenario generally requires specific trigger conditions, and they are closely monitoring the emergence of such conditions. Liu Yuhui stated that, based on experience, the risk appetite of the entire A-share market should be overall stable and friendly. The probability is increasing that the economy will regain strength both domestically and externally. The A-share market is likely brewing a long-term evolution in terms of industrial logic, such as data services, computing power storage, and intelligent driving, which could lead to exhilarating structural trends. He further mentioned that the overall tone of the recently held Central Economic Work Conference was "Stability through Progress, Prioritize Stability after Progress." Where to "progress," and where to "prioritize stability" are the focal points of China's macroeconomic policies. He believed that the industry evolution logic towards industrial digitization and data capitalization may be the biggest premium direction in the Chinese capital market in the coming years, with fiscal incentives driving this development. From the perspective of the risk premium in the A-share market, the direction to track must come from the new productive forces proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference. Developing new productive forces, further shaping production relations that adapt to new productive forces, and unblocking obstacles and bottlenecks in the development of new productive forces to facilitate smooth flow and efficient allocation of various new productive factors may become the core clues for building asset premiums in the Chinese A-share market. In concrete terms, this new productive force is actually the trend of industrial digitization and data capitalization, which may lead to the emergence of a new cluster of intelligent manufacturing industries. For example, artificial intelligence, computing power cards, robots, cloud services, mixed reality, intelligent driving, interstellar travel, etc. The capital market is very willing to offer generous premiums for these industries, thereby driving a revolutionary restructuring of the entire asset premium structure and changing the resource allocation structure of the entire economy.
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