After the global central bank annual meeting, Poplar Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci once again emphasized the importance of policy making based on data. The basic expectation is that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, and plan to cut by 25 basis points at each remaining meeting this year. The September dot plot may reflect this expectation. Uruci stated that if labor market data falls below expectations, it could lead to a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This means further increases in the unemployment rate or monthly job growth below 100,000. Expectations for job growth are high because the government/healthcare/education sectors continue to drive employment growth. If job growth is only 100,000, this would mean job losses in other interest rate-sensitive industries in the economy. However, if the economic growth trend continues as expected, there will be no need to cut rates by 50 basis points this year. Over the next 12 months, the total rate cut will range between 100 and 125 basis points, while the market currently expects a 200 basis point cut.