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Janus Henderson: Expects the US to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year, by a total of 0.5%. Money market fund will not automatically shift to risky assets such as stocks.
Chongqing Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) global market strategist Zhao Yaoting said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, as expected by the market, has indicated that the focus of the Federal Reserve has shifted from inflation to concerns about employment. He also did not rule out the possibility of increasing the interest rate cut in case of worsening in the labor market.
Zhao Yaoting, Global Market Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at Invesco, said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement regarding the shift in focus from inflation to employment concerns was in line with market expectations. He did not rule out the possibility of increasing the interest rate cuts in the event of deterioration in the labor market. Investors believe that the Federal Reserve seems to be more open to cutting interest rates more quickly than expected. The basic scenario still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, each by 25 basis points, despite the slowdown in labor data, other U.S. economic indicators remain robust. There are expected to be more interest rate cuts in 2025, with the policy interest rate possibly remaining at around 3.5% in the next 12 months under the basic scenario. Zhao Yaoting stated that once the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, the record levels of cash holdings in U.S. money market funds may not automatically shift to risky assets such as stocks. The current high interest rate environment is one of the reasons why market participants have record levels of over $6.22 trillion invested in U.S. money market funds. He pointed out that since 2019, U.S. money market funds have recorded net inflows of around $2.6 trillion over three periods. The first period was post-pandemic when the global economy faced major uncertainties, the second period was in 2022 when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates leading to retail fund inflows, and the last period was during a regional bank crisis in March 2023. Furthermore, Zhao Yaoting mentioned that institutional funds currently account for 61% of money market funds, while retail funds account for 37%. When institutional funds exit money market funds, they tend to allocate more towards high-quality short-term assets rather than stocks, as institutional investors are more driven by security rather than yield. Retail funds, which make up a relatively small portion of money market funds, are more inclined to reallocate towards stocks.
Schroder Investment: Stock market performance may exceed expectations when panic sentiment is high.
PwC: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with further 25 basis point cuts in the remaining meetings of the year.