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Fidelity International: Optimistic Outlook for the Remaining Time of the Technology Sector This Year
Fidelity International is optimistic about the performance of the technology industry for the remainder of this year.
Fidelity International's Investment Director Radhika Surie stated that technology stocks have recently experienced turbulence due to two main factors. Firstly, from a macro perspective, the market is concerned about consumer activities including soft demand for travel and durable goods expenditures. In addition, sluggish economic data suggests an industrial downturn cycle, posing risks for some technology sectors. Secondly, there is controversy surrounding the return on investment for the infrastructure of artificial intelligence (AI), as the tangible benefits in terms of generating income or cost efficiency have not yet been seen. This has led to considerations about whether there is overinvestment in AI and its sustainability, causing high sensitivity to cyclicality in the technology industry, semiconductor and hardware sectors, and an increase in volatility. As tech companies become more attractive in terms of valuation, mergers and acquisitions activity may become more active, with uncertainty and volatility providing investment opportunities. Fidelity International holds an optimistic view on the performance of the technology sector for the remainder of the year. Despite the ongoing issue of AI not generating income for businesses, Fidelity International believes that AI remains an important factor driving market trends. One approach to investing in the AI theme is by investing in companies that are well-positioned and capable of long-term profitability, such as cloud services providers, software and IT services companies. However, there are relatively few attractive choices in the semiconductor and hardware sectors. Currently, the market is overly focused on AI infrastructure development, overlooking the future potential for growth. There is a massive demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, with the development of AI data centers alone driving geometric growth in semiconductor and hardware demand. The market realizes this favorable factor, but hardware and semiconductor investments are cyclical, and it should not be assumed that this trend can sustain high-speed growth. The current huge hardware demand mainly comes from cloud services companies that provide infrastructure for clients in the long term. Multinational corporations are concerned that if they cannot provide sufficient AI cloud computing capacity, they will lose their market leadership position. Some artificial intelligence infrastructure relies on external capital, which is usually high-leverage financing. From a risk-return perspective, Fidelity International points out that AI hardware and semiconductor company stocks are less attractive, whereas AI-related service and software companies, for which there is a time lag between the development of AI services and software by companies and its market reflection, may present potential benefits. In the long term, as enterprise customers continue to move workloads to AI cloud computing platforms, it will bring continuous income to cloud services providers each year. When software companies provide AI application software to customers and IT services companies assist clients in adopting AI, they can create income for these two types of companies. The market generally expects challenges for the remainder of the year. For active investors, this may be a good entry point into the market. Looking back at the first half of 2024, the market was dominated by the AI theme, with gains concentrated in small-cap stocks. As we enter the second half of the year, uncertainty in consumer and industrial activities, investments in information technology by companies, and spending on electronic products also pose certain pressures. Fidelity is optimistic about the diversity of the technology industry, as it includes a variety of choices that can uncover investment opportunities in different markets and environments. For example, despite uncertainty in economic prospects, high-quality software companies with high customer loyalty and recurring income can show resilience; gaming companies have unique driving factors and are less affected by the overall market. In addition, even in an economic downturn, restructurings aimed at improving profitability and cash flow for companies provide investment opportunities.
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