Prayes: Japan may raise interest rates in October or in the coming years, investment conditions may become more difficult.

2024-09-05 11:04

Zhitongcaijing
Pramerica Fixed Income Global Director and Chief Investment Officer Arif Husain commented on the Bank of Japan changing its monetary policy.
Prudential Global Fixed Income Head and Chief Investment Officer Arif Husain commented on the Bank of Japan's change in monetary policy. He pointed out that if the Japanese yen continues to weaken or if wages unexpectedly grow strongly, inflation in Japan in the second half of the year may be higher than expected. This could prompt the Bank of Japan to raise rates again at its October meeting and further slow down its pace of asset purchases.
A weaker yen could lead the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy faster, but rate cuts by other developed market central banks may offset the impact to some extent. In early 2024, the yen fell to its lowest level since the mid-1980s against the US dollar. However, due to the Federal Reserve's intention to cut rates and the European Central Bank already beginning to loosen policy, the pressure for the Bank of Japan to raise rates may be relatively small.
However, the widespread market turmoil that occurred on August 5th has not yet ended. The tightening of the Bank of Japan's policy and its impact on global capital flows are significant and may have a huge impact in the coming years. But considering the impact of other trends, such as fiscal expansion in some developed countries being unsustainable, market volatility may become the norm rather than a major shock.
In other words, investors have been in a favorable position since the global financial crisis, but the situation has changed, and the investment landscape in the coming years may become more challenging. The impact of the Bank of Japan's tightening policy on global capital flows is one of the changes, and investors should closely monitor the related effects.