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Pulley: If inflation in Japan exceeds expectations in the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in October.
Prashant Singh, Global Head of Fixed Income at Puilaishi, said that if the yen continues to weaken or compensation unexpectedly grows strongly, inflation in Japan in the second half of the year may be higher than expected.
Arif Husain, Global Head of Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO, stated that if the Japanese Yen continues to weaken or if wages unexpectedly grow stronger, inflation in Japan in the second half of the year may be higher than expected. This could prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again at its October meeting and further slow down its asset purchases. He mentioned that a weaker Yen could lead to the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy more quickly. However, the easing measures taken by other developed market central banks may partially offset the impact. The exchange rate of the Yen against the US Dollar fell to its lowest level since the mid-1980s in early 2024. Nevertheless, due to the Federal Reserve's intention to cut interest rates and the European Central Bank starting to ease its policy, the pressure for the Bank of Japan to raise rates may be relatively small. However, Arif Husain believes that the widespread market turmoil on August 5th is not yet over. The tightening policy of the Bank of Japan and its impact on global capital flows could have significant effects in the coming years. But given the impact of other trends, such as some developed countries' fiscal expansion may not be sustainable, market volatility may become the norm rather than a major shock. In other words, investors have been in a favorable position since the global financial crisis. But the situation has changed, and the investment landscape in the coming years may become more challenging. The impact of the Bank of Japan tightening policy on global capital flows is one of the changes, and investors should closely monitor the related effects.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management: Expect central banks in the Asia-Pacific region to be less likely to lower interest rates as quickly as the Federal Reserve. It is recommended to maintain a diversified investment portfolio.
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