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Morgan Stanley Investment Management: Expect central banks in the Asia-Pacific region to be less likely to lower interest rates as quickly as the Federal Reserve. It is recommended to maintain a diversified investment portfolio.
Aidan Shevlin suggests that investors adopt a more rigorous and flexible investment strategy, maintain a diversified portfolio, and hold money market funds and ultra-short-term bond strategies.
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, Aidan Shevlin, Head of International Liquidity Fund at Morgan Asset Management, pointed out that although the market has quickly reflected that central banks in the Asia-Pacific region may follow the Federal Reserve in monetary policy stance, local central banks have not been as proactive during rate hike cycles as the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for Asia-Pacific central banks to cut interest rates as quickly as the Federal Reserve, and the extent of rate cuts is also unpredictable. He suggests that investors adopt a more rigorous and flexible investment strategy, maintain diversified portfolios, and hold both money market funds and ultra-short-term bond strategies, in order to enjoy the rate-cutting cycle, maintain high yields, and hope for higher returns over a longer period of time. Aidan Shevlin mentioned that for Asia-Pacific investors, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still important, but local inflation, economic, and political situations will also affect local investment strategies. Aidan Shevlin said that not all Asia-Pacific central banks have begun an interest rate cutting cycle. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Central Bank of the Philippines have both cut interest rates, while central banks such as Malaysia, Thailand, and India are waiting for the Federal Reserve's action. The Reserve Bank of Australia may maintain relatively high interest rates for a longer period of time, and the Bank of Japan has even moved away from negative interest rate policies into a rate hike cycle. Aidan Shevlin believes that central banks in various Asia-Pacific countries are in different interest rate cycles, due to the different focus of each central bank on controlling inflation, supporting local economic growth, and avoiding exchange rate fluctuations. He believes that geopolitical concerns, escalating trade tensions, and persistent inflation pose risks to the Asia-Pacific region, which may affect fuel and food prices, leading investors to shift to safe-haven assets; concerns about tariff increases may disrupt supply chains within the region and weaken export competitiveness; and the potential return of economic growth or inflation in the United States may exacerbate market liquidity, making the timing and extent of interest rate cuts in the Asia-Pacific region more complex.
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