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Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund: Inflation pressure may continue to exist, future market returns are not optimistic.
Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned that future market returns may not be optimistic due to persistent inflation pressures.
While investors are betting that global central banks will gradually begin to shift their policies this year, thereby boosting the prices of risk assets, some institutional investors have a more pessimistic outlook. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, has warned that due to the possibility of persistent inflation pressures, future market returns are not optimistic. Nicolai Tangen, CEO of the Norwegian sovereign fund, stated in a media interview at the Davos World Economic Forum that we are facing potential inflation pressures, with high wage demands in many countries likely leading to a spiral increase in inflation in the future. Other negative factors include climate impacts, geopolitical tensions, and trade routes, among others. "The potential inflation pressures are greater, and I believe that this pressure will last longer," Tangen said, adding that central banks will be very cautious about easing too quickly because they have been raising rates too slowly. He also stated, "We are not very optimistic about returns." Tangen believes that rapid rate hikes by central banks have had an impact on the economy, especially negatively affecting indebted companies and the real estate market. The situation where "capital costs soar dramatically" has likely passed, and going forward, things may start to normalize. Established in 1996, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is funded by the country's oil and gas revenues and serves as a strategic reserve for when energy sources are depleted, protecting Norway's economic future. The fund currently has assets totaling $1.5 trillion and is the largest single stock owner in the world, holding shares in over 9,000 companies, accounting for about 1.5% of the total global listed company shares. As of the end of June 2023, the fund had 71.3% of its assets invested in stocks, 26.4% in fixed income assets, 2.3% in unlisted real estate, and 0.1% in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure.
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