East Asia Bank: Do not rule out the possibility of the Hang Seng Index reaching a low level again in the short term. The support level is around 15400 points.

2024-01-16 17:30

Zhitongcaijing
The Hang Seng Index is not ruled out from revisiting low levels in the short term. It is expected that the support level for the Hang Seng Index is around 15400 points, and the forecasted price-earnings ratio is 7.7-7.8 times.
Chen Weicong, investment strategist at the Wealth Management Department of East Asia Bank, said that the Hang Seng Index has a number of technology and growth stocks, of which foreign holdings are relatively high. The profit growth of these companies in the past year has been disappointing. With pressure on these weighted stocks, it is not ruled out that the Hang Seng Index may see a lower level in the short term. It is expected that the support level for the Hang Seng Index is around 15400 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 7.7-7.8 times.
East Asia Bank has set a 12-month target level for the Hang Seng Index at 19500 points. Chen Weicong said that the above target is measured based on long-term and valuation perspectives. The 19500 point level corresponds to a forecasted P/E ratio of about 9 times. In the past ten years, the average P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Index was about 11.5 times. Recently, the performance of Hong Kong stocks has been disappointing, lagging behind global stock markets. The biggest concern now is that foreign investors are showing reservations towards the Chinese economy, leading to a net outflow of foreign capital.
Huang Yan'e, Senior Investment Strategist at the Wealth Management Department of East Asia Bank, said that she expects loose monetary policy to continue supporting the economy and the outlook for the Chinese yuan remains positive. She expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the first half of 2024, which will help the Chinese yuan trend.
Huang Yan'e said that the People's Bank of China may deploy interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions to support the economy. The fundamentals of the domestic economy are improving, but the rebound momentum needs to be confirmed. The downgrade of China's economic outlook by Moody's has limited impact on the Chinese yuan's trend. She expects the first quarter USD to RMB exchange rate to fluctuate in the range of 7-7.15.