Singapore Bank: Expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year.

2024-01-16 18:57

Zhitongcaijing
On January 16th, Singapore Bank held a media briefing on the investment market outlook for 2024.
On January 16, Singapore bank held a media briefing on the investment market outlook for 2024. Kelvin Tang, Chief Investment Officer of the Hong Kong branch, stated that the Fed will wait until inflation falls below 3% before starting to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June, with cuts in June, September, and December, each time by 25 basis points. The yield on the US ten-year Treasury bonds is expected to reach 3.25% by the end of this year, with overall economic growth falling from 2.4% last year to 0.9%.
Kelvin Tang pointed out that as the Japanese economy slowly improves, inflation will continue to rise. It is expected that in April of this year, the Bank of Japan will increase the deposit interest rate from -0.1% to zero, and it is not expected to raise it further after that. He also mentioned that the US dollar will remain weak, and that bonds will benefit from the low interest rate environment. He expressed optimism for US Treasury bonds and investment grade bonds, and predicted that the yen will rise to a level of 130 against the US dollar in the next 12 months.
Hu Hui Min, China Stock Strategist at Singapore bank, stated that the Hang Seng Index covers different sectors including e-commerce, artificial intelligence, etc., and the portfolio will be influenced by the Chinese economy and US interest rate cuts. The benchmark scenario expects the index to reach 18,700 points, while the pessimistic scenario expects it to reach 15,800 points. The benchmark scenario depends on forecasts of corporate profits, with expectations of about 7% to 8% growth in Chinese corporate profits.